This all means a dramatically more fragmented world in 2016 with more intra-, inter-, and extra-state conflict than at any point since World War II. And yet drawing the major powers into military battle against one another - World War III - is virtually unthinkable (recent comments from Pope Francis notwithstanding). The world's four largest economies - the United States, China, Japan and Germany - are all deeply reluctant to accept responsibility for crisis management. Only the Germans are affected directly by this turmoil, and they still have plenty of reasons to duck the fight.
And so, in 2016, conflict intensifies. Last year, investors recognized growing uncertainty but remained more focused on the economic improvements: a US economy in recovery and Europe coming out of recession. That´s unlikely to last, as geopolitical risk shakes the global order.